jump to navigation

FaceBook jumps the shark July 19, 2010

Posted by Edwin Ritter in Trends.
Tags: , , ,

One thing I’ve noticed with trends and fads is that looking back on them, we usually say “What were we thinking?” With the passage of enough time, it can be difficult to remember what motivated us at the time. The reason(s) why something that was so important changed into the commonplace and then, a drudgery or worse, not cool anymore becomes lost over time. We’ve all seen example of this and the same progression will occur with Social Media. I maybe ahead of the curve of this, but there will come a time when FB will no longer be de rigueur but, instead,  passe. Will you remember where you were at this pivotal future moment? It will happen at some point. Certainly not a question of if, but of when. When it does, will that moment become an indelible memory for you?  One social media statistic I heard recently was that if FaceBook (FB) was a country, it would the 3rd largest in the world with over 500M users, er, ‘netizens’. Will they experience the same future gestalt and log off FB never to return?
Another thing I’ve noticed is that trends based solely on technology have a finite lifetime. We tend to stay with something even when it is past its’ prime. Comfort, resistant to change, the migration effort and learning curve involved all play a part of staying with status quo, the familiar. We accept trade-offs and shortcomings; we settle. Until, of course, a game changer comes along. The bright, new shiny bauble that excites you. Entices you; teases you. You have to have it.

As someone once said ‘Technology is cyclical’, there will be another widget/new thing to displace FB and occupy our time. It will have to be better, more convenient, easier. Also, it will need to make money. At some point in the (not too distant?) future, there will be a seminal moment when many of us will say “FB? I haven’t used it in months. Who does that anymore?”

Predictions invited – what lifetime do you think FB will have? We will still use it in 5 years? 3 years? Next year?  Let me know – if I get enough responses, I update the post with a summary of the feedback.  Thanks in advance, til then see you on FB. 😉